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Find the real matchup edge.

The six-factor trench-heavy approach used for the Memphis–Tulane handicap: rushing mismatches, line play, passing matchups, third downs, recent form and schedule quality, plus verified availability. No sportsbook blending.

MEMPHIS METHOD · SIX FACTORS

Research prototype · 7-point ATS focus. ATS percentages show the selected side’s raw share of non-push simulations covering the listed spread, not validated betting probabilities. Missing factors are marked unavailable and excluded from weighting. All historical factors use prior-week data, filtered by the switches below.

Pregame data filters

Applied to eligible prior games used for success rates, third downs, trench statistics, recent form and strength of schedule.

Exclude FCS opponents Exclude blowouts from efficiency statsBlowout = previous game won by at least points

Blowout filtering applies to offensive/defensive efficiency, not team-strength, SOS, or SOR ratings. Past FBS blowouts still contribute to team strength. The predicted game's result is never used. After changing these settings, rerun the slate.

1. Single Game Lab

Pick any scheduled matchup, set independent model weights, and remove specific prior games from either team’s evaluation.

CUSTOM MATCHUP

Game dateMatchup

Choose the date, find the game, and load its pregame history. The slate below is separate.

Matchup

Uncheck a past game to remove it from that team’s calculation.

Away

Home

Excluded games are removed from that team’s scoring averages, advanced matchup statistics, recent form, and team-strength calculation. Each team’s exclusions are independent. Prior FBS blowouts may already be excluded from efficiency stats, but they still count toward strength unless unchecked.

No games removed.

After you load a game, a second model will retrieve earlier CFBD drives and simulate possessions. Both models will appear side by side here.

Adjust the history or sliders to recalculate.

Game-specific weights

Changing these affects only this game, not your full slate.

Normalized total100%

These weights are relative shares of the six-factor matchup adjustment, not six independent point bonuses. Only available factors are counted; a missing factor is shown as inactive. Moving all available sliders proportionally will not change the forecast.

Influence of the six matchup factors30% matchup · 30% strength

Single Game Lab only: 40% scoring baseline plus your selected matchup influence; the remainder (60% minus matchup influence) uses opponent-adjusted strength. The standard full-slate model stays at 10% matchup influence. Experimental controls, not historically calibrated.

Offense vs. defense50% offense · 50% defense

Your game-specific weights and influence are stored while this page stays open. The live slate is never changed.

Home ATS line (editable)Game total (editable)Manual availability (home + / away −)

Load a game to calculate. Slider and line edits are applied when you press this button.

The latest applied ATS pick and projected margin will appear here beside your settings.

Both simulation engines use your game-specific sliders and lines (for grading only). The experimental drive-event model needs usable historical drive records plus offensive/defensive matchup statistics. Run/pass calling mix is calculated from the selected eligible game box scores (adjusting for measured sacks); if unavailable, it falls back to the selected game's advanced play-share metric. Missing essentials are reported instead of invented.

Move sliders or edit the home spread, then press Apply sliders / lines to update the prediction. To remove prior games, use Recalculate with selected games instead. Changing the betting line changes the ATS comparison, not the projected score. Cover percentages are uncalibrated simulation frequencies.

2. Competitive-game slate

Default research universe: pregame sportsbook spreads of 7 points or fewer, including exactly 7. Turn the filter off to inspect all FBS games.

Game date Only spreads ≤7

Choose a date, then analyze the slate.

Displayed percentages are for covering the listed spread (ATS), not winning outright (ML). They are uncalibrated simulation frequencies, conditional on no push.

Waiting for a CFBD slate.

3. Slate matchup analysis

Select a matchup from the slate.

Select “View breakdown” on a game to inspect the six factors and simulated outcomes.

Model weights

30/20/20/15/10/5 default · Renormalized when a factor is unavailable.

Normalized total100%

The listed percentages are starting assumptions, not fitted from historical games. Changing them recalculates the currently loaded slate and matchup.

Offense vs. defense influence65% offense · 35% defense

This controls how strongly offensive performance versus defense-allowed performance influences matchup scores and baseline points. Default 65/35 is an experimental choice; change to 50/50 with the slider if preferred. No sportsbook lines enter the football score forecast.

Offensive run/pass success is matched against the opponent’s allowed success, adjusted for run/pass usage. Trenches use line yards, stuffs, havoc and sacks. Form combines schedule quality with each team’s last two eligible results. Injuries require a manually verified adjustment.

Definitions and safeguards

The six matchup components and what we do not assume.

Rush matchups — 30%: success and allowed-success rates, with weaker defenses correctly adding to expected rushing efficiency; adjusted for play volume.

Trenches — 20%: offensive/defensive line yards, stuff rates, front-seven havoc, and sacks per dropback where available. These are imperfect proxies for line play.

Pass matchups — 20%: passing success and defensive passing success allowed in the correct direction, adjusted for pass volume.

Third downs — 15%: offense conversion rate and the opponent’s defensive conversion rate allowed; higher allowed now correctly means weaker defense. Red zone remains excluded.

Recent form / SOS — 10%: last two eligible game margins and opponent-strength quality from prior games. Missing measures are dropped rather than fabricated.

Availability / context — 5%: optional manual verified injury/context rating. Home field receives a separate single fixed 1.5-point adjustment; it is never double-counted. Without injury details, the 5% category is unavailable and remaining factor weights are renormalized.

FCS games: excluded from ratings and, by default, efficiency stats. 35+ point FBS blowouts: excluded from efficiency by default, retained for team strength. Game lines are comparison-only; archived odds may not have verified pregame timestamps.

Limits: this is a structured approximation of the Memphis handicap, not a reproduction of its manual 500,000-trial projections. The website runs 10,000 seeded experimental scoring trials; the confidence percentages are not calibrated.