BACK TO FOOTBALL FUNDAMENTALS

Find the real matchup edge.

The six-factor trench-heavy approach used for the Memphis–Tulane handicap: rushing mismatches, line play, passing matchups, third downs, recent form and schedule quality, plus verified availability. No sportsbook blending.

MEMPHIS METHOD · SIX FACTORS

Research prototype · 7-point ATS focus. ATS percentages show the selected side’s raw share of non-push simulations covering the listed spread, not validated betting probabilities. Missing factors are marked unavailable and excluded from weighting. All historical factors use prior-week data, filtered by the switches below.

Pregame data filters

Applied to eligible prior games used for success rates, third downs, trench statistics, recent form and strength of schedule.

Exclude FCS opponents Exclude blowouts from efficiency statsBlowout = previous game won by at least points

Blowout filtering applies to offensive/defensive efficiency, not team-strength, SOS, or SOR ratings. Past FBS blowouts still contribute to team strength. The predicted game's result is never used. After changing these settings, rerun the slate.

1. Single Game Lab

Pick any scheduled matchup, set independent model weights, and remove specific prior games from either team’s evaluation.

CUSTOM MATCHUP

Game dateMatchup

Choose the date, find the game, and load its pregame history. The slate below is separate.

Matchup

Uncheck a past game to remove it from that team’s calculation.

Away

Home

Excluded games are removed from that team’s scoring averages, advanced matchup statistics, recent form, and team-strength calculation. Each team’s exclusions are independent. Prior FBS blowouts may already be excluded from efficiency stats, but they still count toward strength unless unchecked.

No games removed.

After you load a game, a second model will retrieve earlier CFBD drives and simulate possessions. Both models will appear side by side here.

Adjust the history or sliders to recalculate.

Game-specific weights

Changing these affects only this game, not your full slate.

Normalized total100%

These weights are relative shares of the six-factor matchup adjustment, not six independent point bonuses. Only available factors are counted; a missing factor is shown as inactive. Moving all available sliders proportionally will not change the forecast.

Influence of the six matchup factors30% matchup · 30% strength

Single Game Lab only: 40% scoring baseline plus your selected matchup influence; the remainder (60% minus matchup influence) uses opponent-adjusted strength. The standard full-slate model stays at 10% matchup influence. Experimental controls, not historically calibrated.

Offense vs. defense50% offense · 50% defense

Your game-specific weights and influence are stored while this page stays open. The live slate is never changed.

Home ATS line (editable)Game total (editable)Manual availability (home + / away −)

Load a game to calculate. Slider and line edits are applied when you press this button.

The latest applied ATS pick and projected margin will appear here beside your settings.

Both simulation engines use your game-specific sliders and lines (for grading only). The experimental drive-event model needs usable historical drive records plus offensive/defensive matchup statistics. Run/pass calling mix is calculated from the selected eligible game box scores (adjusting for measured sacks); if unavailable, it falls back to the selected game's advanced play-share metric. Missing essentials are reported instead of invented.

Move sliders or edit the home spread, then press Apply sliders / lines to update the prediction. To remove prior games, use Recalculate with selected games instead. Changing the betting line changes the ATS comparison, not the projected score. Cover percentages are uncalibrated simulation frequencies.

2. Competitive-game slate

Default research universe: pregame sportsbook spreads of 7 points or fewer, including exactly 7. Turn the filter off to inspect all FBS games.

Game date Only spreads ≤7

Choose a date, then analyze the slate.

Displayed percentages are for covering the listed spread (ATS), not winning outright (ML). They are uncalibrated simulation frequencies, conditional on no push.

Waiting for a CFBD slate.

3. Slate matchup analysis

Select a matchup from the slate.

Select “View breakdown” on a game to inspect the six factors and simulated outcomes.

Model weights

30/20/20/15/10/5 default · Renormalized when a factor is unavailable.

Normalized total100%

The listed percentages are starting assumptions, not fitted from historical games. Changing them recalculates the currently loaded slate and matchup.

Offense vs. defense influence65% offense · 35% defense

This controls how strongly offensive performance versus defense-allowed performance influences matchup scores and baseline points. Default 65/35 is an experimental choice; change to 50/50 with the slider if preferred. No sportsbook lines enter the football score forecast.

Offensive run/pass success is matched against the opponent’s allowed success, adjusted for run/pass usage. Trenches use line yards, stuffs, havoc and sacks. Form combines schedule quality with each team’s last two eligible results. Injuries require a manually verified adjustment.

Definitions and safeguards

The six matchup components and what we do not assume.

Rush matchups — 30%: success and allowed-success rates, with weaker defenses correctly adding to expected rushing efficiency; adjusted for play volume.

Trenches — 20%: offensive/defensive line yards, stuff rates, front-seven havoc, and sacks per dropback where available. These are imperfect proxies for line play.

Pass matchups — 20%: passing success and defensive passing success allowed in the correct direction, adjusted for pass volume.

Third downs — 15%: offense conversion rate and the opponent’s defensive conversion rate allowed; higher allowed now correctly means weaker defense. Red zone remains excluded.

Recent form / SOS — 10%: last two eligible game margins and opponent-strength quality from prior games. Missing measures are dropped rather than fabricated.

Availability / context — 5%: optional manual verified injury/context rating. Home field receives a separate single fixed 1.5-point adjustment; it is never double-counted. Without injury details, the 5% category is unavailable and remaining factor weights are renormalized.

FCS games: excluded from ratings and, by default, efficiency stats. 35+ point FBS blowouts: excluded from efficiency by default, retained for team strength. Game lines are comparison-only; archived odds may not have verified pregame timestamps.

Limits: this is a structured approximation of the Memphis handicap, not a reproduction of its manual 500,000-trial projections. The website runs 10,000 seeded experimental scoring trials; the confidence percentages are not calibrated.

NCAA MEN'S BASKETBALL · CBBD

Basketball Matchup Lab

Possession simulations for regular-season games and preseason projections. Compare last year's playing style, roster continuity, incoming transfers and recruits, and manual team adjustments.

BASKETBALL · PRESEASON v3

Experimental research model. In-season mode uses earlier games; preseason mode anchors team scoring to opponent-adjusted prior-season efficiency, then uses roster, play-style and labeled game-exclusion heuristics. Simulation cover rates are uncalibrated frequencies, not verified win probabilities or betting recommendations. Neither market lines nor target-game results change the projected score.

Preseason builder · no scheduled games required

Choose any two teams and project the upcoming season from last year’s box scores, current roster, portal and recruiting records. Season 2027 = 2026–27.

PRESEASON

Season ending year Away team Home team

Load teams, choose any matchup, then build a preseason projection. No game date is needed.

1. Select an NCAA matchup

Basketball seasons use the ending year (2026–27 = season 2027). The preseason strength baseline requires verified opponent-adjusted CBBD ratings.

Game dateMatchup

Select a date to load college basketball games.

Matchup

Uncheck earlier games independently for each team, including last-season games when running preseason projections.

CBBD BOX SCORES

2. Select historical games

Every change is applied to the actual statistics used in the next simulation.

Away

Home

Preseason roster & play-style settings

Confirmed arrivals get small rating proxies; when rosters are missing, listed commitments get discounted provisional proxies. Check which players to include and edit the projected roster.

Away

Returning minutes assumption (%) Manual offense adjustment (points/100 possessions) Manual defensive improvement (points/100 possessions)

Home

Returning minutes assumption (%) Manual offense adjustment (points/100 possessions) Manual defensive improvement (points/100 possessions)

Tempo/style adjustment (possessions/game)

Roster matches determine the suggested returning-minutes share, but it is editable. Transfer/recruiting bonuses are deliberately small; listed but unconfirmed commitments receive only a discounted assumption. Returning players, transfers and freshmen are listed with source-coverage notes. Missing records are never counted as zero or confirmed departures. Recent-form weighting is disabled in preseason simulations.

3. Possession simulator

The final prediction comes from the simulated final scores, not a pre-filled projection.

Home spread (home −)Total points lineHome court pts (0 neutral)

Choose which games to include, then run the model.

Simulation results will appear here.

Basketball factor presets

Six presets. Each factor influences the matchup simulation, rather than simply changing a displayed label.

Model style

Normalized share100%

Factor shares normalize to 100%. Preseason opponent-adjusted efficiency is a REQUIRED scoring anchor and does not disappear when a slider is set to zero; shooting, rebounding and turnovers tune play styles and small matchup residuals. Recent form is disabled in preseason; projections remain uncalibrated.

Opponent-specific comparisons

Load history to compare shooting accuracy, turnovers, boards, tempo and points per possession against the specific opponent's allowed rates.

How this differs from football: Football keeps its existing drive-event engine. Basketball uses a separate possession simulation; preseason requires opponent-adjusted offensive and defensive ratings and then simulates field goals, turnovers, free throws and offensive rebounds. Betting lines are for ATS/total grading only. No historical accuracy claim is made until the basketball model has been backtested.

NFL · NFLVERSE HISTORICAL STATS

NFL Matchup & Prop Lab

Matchup-aware game outcomes, plus player-specific rushing, receiving and passing prop simulations. Uses earlier completed games only and lets you adjust usage and player game samples.

NFL RESEARCH · v3.9

Experimental — not calibrated for betting. No current injuries, confirmed depth charts, or game-day inactives are automatically verified. Simulated over/under percentages are model frequencies, not validated probabilities. Missing source data causes an error rather than made-up results.

1. Choose NFL game

Select any regular-season week and match. Use the previous games to model this exact opponent.

Season Week Game

Choose a season and week, then find the matchup.

Matchup

All stats are as of before selected game.

OPPONENT AWARE

2. Game simulation

Offense vs defense, rushing/passing matchup, and home advantage.

Home-field edge (points) Drive pace adjustment (%) Away availability points Home availability points

Choose a matchup to begin.

Game projection will appear here.

3. Player prop simulator

Uses the player's previous game logs, opposing defense and expected team drives. Choose any available player.

Player Prop market

Over/under line Expected workload (%) Recent-game weighting (%)

Choose a player, market, and prop line.

Player projection will appear here.

How the NFL model works: Upcoming possessions are drawn from a drive-count distribution. Each offense's scoring rate blends its points scored against its opponent's points allowed, with rushing/passing yardage adjustments. Each player prop then draws volume and production from their own prior weekly game logs, expected game pace, the opposing defense's allowed production, and your workload assumptions. Passing/rushing touchdowns are linked to simulated team touchdowns. Advanced injury, play-by-play EPA, offensive-line grading and coverage-matchup inputs are not yet included. To change a player's sample, uncheck their weeks above.

NBA · ESPN GAME HISTORY

NBA Matchup & Prop Lab

Pregame opponent-aware NBA simulation, plus points, rebounds, assists, threes and combination props. Earlier completed games only; prior-season data available for opening week.

NBA RESEARCH · v4.0

Prototype — not calibrated for wagering. ESPN public-facing endpoints are undocumented and could change; live Cloudflare access is unverified. Previous-season statistics do not account automatically for trades, injuries, minutes restrictions or new starting lineups.

1. Choose NBA game

Pick a date, load the teams and their last completed games.

DateMatchup

Choose an NBA game date.

NBA matchup

Data cutoff is before tipoff.

OPPONENT-AWARE

2. Game simulator

Match each offense against its opponent's scoring defense. Exclude any historical team games you don't want.

Home court (points)Pace adjustment (%)Away lineup adjustment (points)Home lineup adjustment (points)

Load a matchup to simulate.

Game results appear here.

3. Player prop simulator

Simulates player production using historical minutes, game logs, projected team scoring and the opposing defense.

Player Prop market

Prop lineExpected minutesUsage adjustment (%)

Select a player and click Run Prop; player history loads automatically.

Player prop distribution appears here.

NBA methodology: Game scoring blends each team's prior points scored with the opposing team's allowed points, adjusted for the size/recency of the samples, home court and editable lineup assumptions. A 5,000-trial possession-scoring abstraction generates scores. Player props use the selected player's prior games, projected minutes, the opponent's defense and the same simulated game results. Team pace defaults to approximately 99 possessions and can be changed manually; exact pace, defense by position, current injuries and active lineups are not verified. All frequencies are uncalibrated.